BLS Releases Ten-Year Projections - See the Monthly Labor Review Article and Video

In its news release announcing the issuance of the ten-year projections, BLS states that employment growth is expected to slow, mainly because of an aging population and lower population growth, which will impact Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Population and Labor Force, Macroeconomic Projections

The U.S. economy is projected to add 6.7 million jobs from 2023 to 2033. Total employment is projected to increase to 174.6 million and grow 0.4 percent annually, which is slower than the 1.3 percent annual growth recorded over the 2013−23 decade.

The projected 0.6 percent annual growth would, if realized, represent the slowest growth rate since BLS began publishing this data.

The overall labor force participation rate is projected to fall from 62.6 percent in 2023 to 61.2 percent in 2033.

Industry Employment

Healthcare and social assistance is projected to have the largest growth and be the fastest growing industry sector (+1.0 percent annually).

Demand for information technology products and services are expected to drive the demand for workers in the information sector (+0.7 percent) and professional and business services sector (+0.7 percent).

Utilities growth (+0.6 percent annually) will stem from demand for electricity related to electric vehicles and new data centers coupled with the shift towards renewable energy.  

Retail trade is the only sector projected to decline (-0.2 percent annually) as e-commerce continues to have a negative effect on in-person sales at retail outlets, although increased online purchases drive the growth in transportation and warehousing (+0.6 percent) as companies ship goods directly to consumers.

Occupational Employment

Healthcare support occupations and healthcare practitioners and technical occupations are projected to be among the fastest growing of all occupational groups, growing 15.2 percent and 8.6 percent, respectively, from 2023 to 2033.  

Similarly, the projected fast growth for community and social service occupations (+8.1 percent) will stem from more individuals seeking assistance for a variety of challenges.

Computer and mathematical occupations are projected to grow the second fastest of any occupational group, at 12.9 percent.  

Occupational Skills

BLS has introduced a new data product beginning with the 2023–33 projections that provides information about important skills by occupation. This data provides users with additional information about skills and the ability to view skills data together with the occupational projections.

See also the Occupational Outlook Handbook, which incorporates the projections and skills data.

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• Posted by: Teresa Theis
• Posted in: LMI Central