Bridging the Gap in our Labor Force

Early in 2021, Emsi Burning Glass released “The Demographic Drought,” a sobering look at the current and future state of the U.S. labor force. This report explored how surging Baby Boomer retirements, declines in labor force participation amongst millennials, ebbing birth rates, and falling immigration numbers help explain why the U.S. is facing talent shortages and near record-low unemployment. That report also projected that the U.S. labor force would eventually start to decline—with far more job openings than people available to fill them—as permanent retirees outpace new labor force entrants. Even before the pandemic, the U.S. was set up to face a talent deficit of six million people by the end of the decade.

Then, the COVID-19 pandemic struck and hit the accelerator on many of these long-term trends. Almost overnight, the future labor crisis became a present reality. The U.S. is now facing a record 11 million job openings. With 5 million unengaged workers on the sidelines and more than 4 million immigration visas stuck in processing, the same question is on everyone’s minds: How can the U.S. fill the labor force gap?

The latest release of the Demographic Drought Series addresses the following:

• Reflect on how the U.S. got here.
• Provide an update on the state of the U.S. labor force.
• Offer insight into what’s holding the U.S. back from recovering.
• Suggest two opportunities for bridging the gap in the U.S. labor force.

(This report is 26 pages in length and was published in 2021.)

The following findings are identified in the report:

• Working-age population is increasing, but the labor force participation rate is down.
• The U.S. is witnessing a record number of job openings (11 million).
• Recovering our workforce is not about the employed vs. unemployed; it’s about the unengaged.
• Declining birth rates have led to a greater reliance on the foreign-born workforce.
• Immigration numbers are down for a variety of complex reasons.
• Addressing the labor shortage involves understanding the role of immigration and strategies that will engage people on the sidelines.
• Workers can come from only two sources: the population the U.S. already has or the population the U.S. can gain through immigration.

The report recommends the following actions:

1. Re-engaging people on the sidelines.
2. Increasing the labor force through immigration.

• Last Updated:
• Created:
• Resource Publication Date: 2021
• Author(s): Hetrick, R.; Martines, C.; Grieser, H.
• Resource Availability: Publicly available
• Posted by: Alexander Fones
• Posted in: Workforce System Strategies