Building Better Pathways An Analysis of Career Trajectories and Occupational Transitions

This study’s research questions focus on understanding workers’ career trajectories and occupational transitions as they occur in the labor market. Specifically, this report addresses the following research questions:

1. From which occupations do entrants tend to go on to experience higher-than-average wage increases over time (i.e., which are more reliable “launchpads” to advancement)?
2. Which characteristics distinguish launchpad occupations?
3. To what extent is there variation in whether occupations are launchpads for workers with different backgrounds or experiences?

The study used panel surveys that followed individuals for decades to examine wage growth ten years after workers entered these occupations. From that data, the trajectories analyses describe several patterns related to career trajectories:x

• Variation in trajectories: how much of a difference exists among occupations in the wage growth that “entrants” go on to experience, and which occupations tend to be more promising launchpads for wage growth over time?
• Characteristics of occupations: what factors predict wage growth, such as occupational cluster and skill and licensing requirements?
• Characteristics of workers: what demographic and other factors predict wage growth, including identifying disparities in wage growth among workers with different backgrounds?

(This report is 113 pages in length.)

The researchers identified the following findings:

• There is meaningful variation in wage growth trajectories among workers starting in mid-level occupations. Assuming a starting wage of $20, entrants to launchpad occupations earn about $7.20 more per hour after ten years than those who enter lower-wage-growth occupations.

Several characteristics distinguish launchpad occupations:x

• Though launchpad occupations can be found across occupational clusters, workers who enter occupations in “Knowledge” clusters such as Information Technology, Management/Finance, and Engineering/Science/Architecture see the highest average wage growth.
• Launchpad occupations emphasize transferable skills, such as problem-solving and two-way communication.
• Problem-solving is not just foundational for advancement but also a skill that becomes more important as workers advance occupationally. Skills in managing people also become more significant as workers advance to higher-paying occupations.

The following career experiences are associated with wage growth:

• Frequent job changes (seven or more over a 10-year period) are associated with lower wage growth.
• Leaving the starting occupational cluster is associated with greater wage growth.

Among workers who start in the same mid-level occupation, wage growth varies for workers with different backgrounds or experiences in the following ways:

• Women tend to experience lower wage growth than men do.
• Hispanic and Black workers tend to experience lower wage growth than White non-Hispanic workers tend to experience.
• Workers with higher levels of education tend to experience higher wage growth than those without a high school diploma or equivalent.
• Workers who have a parent with a college degree tend to experience higher wage growth than those whose parents do not have a college degree.
• Workers that experience lower wage growth also spend fewer months working.
• When they make an occupational transition, women and Black and Hispanic workers are less likely to advance to higher-level jobs and more likely to stay in the same occupational cluster.

The researchers provided the following selected recommendations:

• Focus training more on occupations that tend to be stronger launchpads for wage growth.
• Design programs to build participants’ broader transferable skills, not just specialized technical skills.
• Consider structural and other barriers facing specific demographic groups.

• Last Updated:
• Created:
• Resource Publication Date: 2021
• Author(s): Schwartz, D., Clarkwest, A., Hashizume, M., Kappil, T., Strawn, J.
• Funding Source: U.S. Department of Labor
• Resource Availability: Publicly available
• Posted by: Wesley Peterson
• Posted in: Workforce System Strategies